Module 1900
Model-based policy impact assessment of agricultural policy

Farm, regional, sectoral and partial equilibrium models (5 days)

Instructors

Martin Banse, Thünen Institute of Market Analysis
Claus Deblitz, Thünen Institute of Farm Economics
Florian Freund, Thünen Institute of Market Analysis
Alexander Gocht, Thünen Institute of Farm Economics
Peter Kreins, Thünen Institute of Rural Studies
Verena Laquai, Thünen Institute of Market Analysis
Frank OFFERMANN, Thünen Institute of Farm Economics

Course Description

Over the last decades, EU agricultural and international trade policies have undergone significant changes. Accordingly, there is an increased need in politics and science to quantify the consequences of these policy changes with the help of model-based policy analyses. This requires the use of models that are able to address different decision-making levels (micro-, meso- and macro-level) and – if needed - sometimes even applied interactively. In the model network of the Thünen Institute, farm, regional, sectoral and general equilibrium models are therefore further developed and used for policy impact assessment. The module provides insights into the theory and application of models applied in the Thünen Model Network in policy assessment.

Course Outline – Topics

1. Introduction
   • Policy consulting: goals, instruments, requirements of political decision-makers; theoretical models of science-policy interactions
   • The Thünen Model Network
   • The Thünen Baseline and its role in policy assessment and consulting
2. Introduction to partial (market) equilibrium models
   • Review of market theory
   • Data basis and model structure of the applied model AGMEMOD
   • Similarities and differences between synthetic and estimated models
3. Introduction to general equilibrium models
   • Introduction to the CGE models GTAP and MAGNET
   • Applications
4. Farm models
   • The sector-consistent farm group model FARMIS: Data bases (national and European farm accountancy data networks) and model structure
   • Farm level modelling using the approach of agri benchmark: Typical farms and international network
5. Introduction to regionally differentiated sector models RAUMIS and CAPRI
   • Data basis and model structure
   • Requirements and model specification for the mapping of agri-environmental indicators
6. Model applications in the context of policy advice

Language: English

References

• Banse M, Freund F (2018) Mögliche Auswirkungen eines harten oder weichen Brexit auf die deutsche Landwirtschaft - Update. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 22 p, Thünen Working Paper 95, DOI:10.3220/WP1524059623000
• Banse, M., N. Janzen, F. Junker, P. Kreins, F. Offermann, P. Salamon, H. Weimar (2016). Modelling the Bioeconomy: Linkages between Agricultural, Wood and Energy Markets: Paper presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA. Purdue: GTAP, 19 p.
• Brockmeier M, Kleinhanß W, Offermann F (2008) The Challenges of Model Based Policy Advice. Agrarwirtschaft 57(8):386-390
• Britz W,Witzke P (2014) CAPRI model documentation, November 2019.
• CAPRI Modelling System (2019), https://www.capri-model.org/dokuwiki/doku.php?, November 2019
• Deppermann A, Grethe H, Offermann F (2014) Distributional effects of CAP liberalisation on western German farm incomes: an ex-ante analysis [online]. Eur Rev Agric Econ 41(4):605-626, doi: 10.1093/erae/jbt034
• Ehrmann M (2017) Modellgestützte Analyse von Einkommens- und Umweltwirkungen auf Basis von Testbetriebsdaten. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 250 p, Thünen Rep 48
• Forstner B, Deblitz C, Kleinhanß W, Nieberg H, Offermann F, Röder N, Salamon P, Sanders J, Weingarten P (2012) Analyse der Vorschläge der EU-Kommission vom 12. Oktober 2011 zur künftigen Gestaltung der Direktzahlungen im Rahmen der GAP nach 2013. Braunschweig: vTI, 127 p, Arbeitsber vTI-Agrarökonomie 2012/04
• Gocht A, Ciaian P, Bielza M, Terres J M, Röder N, Himics M, Salputra G, 2017. EU‐wide economic and environmental impacts of CAP greening with high spatial and farm‐type detail. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68(3), 651-681, https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12217.
• Hertel T. W. (1997) Global Trade Analysis - Modeling and applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Henrichsmeyer W et al. (1996) Entwicklung des gesamtdeutschen Agrarsektormodells RAUMIS96. Endbericht zum Kooperationsprojekt. Forschungsbericht für das BML (94 HS 021), vervielfältigtes Manuskript, Bonn/Braunschweig
• Himics M, Fellmann T, Barreiro-Hurlé J, Witzke H P, Domínguez I P, Jansson T, Weiss F (2018). Does the current trade liberalization agenda contribute to greenhouse gas emission mitigation in agriculture? Food policy, 76, 120-129, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.01.011
• Julius C, Moeller C, Osterburg B, Sieber S (2003) Indikatoren einer nachhaltigen Landwirtschaft im regionalisierten Agrar- Und Umweltinformationssystem für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland (RAUMIS). Agrarwirtschaft 52(4):185-194
• Leeuwen M van, Bouma F, Chantreuil F, Dol W, Erjavec E, Hanrahan KF, Salamon P, Salputra G (2012) AGMEMOD model. In: Chantreuil F, Hanrahan KF, Leeuwen M van (eds) The future of EU agricultural markets by AGMEMOD . Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, pp 45-74, doi:10.1007/978-94-007-2291-0_3
• Offermann F, Banse M, Freund F, Hass M, Kreins P, Laquai V, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P (2018) Thünen-Baseline 2017 - 2027: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 116 p, Thünen Rep 56, DOI:10.3220/REP1516952942000
• Salamon P, Banse M, Barreiro-Hurle J, Chaloupka O, Donnellan T, Erjavec E, Fellmann T, Hanrahan K, Hass M, Jongeneel R, Laquai V, Leeuwen M Van, Molnar A, Pechrová M, Salputra G, Baltussen W, Efken J, Helaine S, Jungehülsing J, Ledebur O Von (2017) Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to member states: A medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model. Luxembourg: Commission of the European Communities, 92 p, JRC Techn Rep, DOI:10.2760/363389
• Woltjer G. & Kuiper M. (2014) The MAGNET Model - Module description. LEI Wageningen UR.
• M'barek R, Britz W, Burrell A, Delince J (2012) An integrated Modelling Platform for Agro-economic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP). JRC-IPTS Seville.http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC69667.pdf